Cap and Trade is Crap and Raid (your wallet)
Posted on March 5, 2009
Filed Under Current Events, Political Rantings | 1 Comment
Think that Cap and Trade will be good for the middle class? Think that only dirty coal companies will have to foot the bill for all this? Think again. You will pay and pay and pay. A study from the Marshall Institute spells things out rather well:
Cap-and-trade will impact the prices households pay for electricity. Table 7 shows estimated changes in the electricity prices from the baseline year. Electricity prices are predicted to increase much more than gasoline prices. Lieberman-Warner’s cap-andtrade system is estimated to increase the price of electricity by anywhere from 5% to 15% in 2015 and anywhere from 14% in the EPA core scenario to 128% in the ACCF/NAM’s high cost scenario in 2030. The CATF model predicts a 7% increase from the 2005 price in 2030. The EIA, MIT, and ACCF/NAM studies predict a 10%, 37%, and 124% increase in electricity prices from their baseline scenarios to 2030, respectively. By 2050, electricity prices will have leveled off somewhat, returning to near 2015 levels according to the MIT and EPA estimates.
…the estimated increase in the price of natural gas from the baseline price. Under lower cost assumptions, the models predict that the price of natural gas will be from 12% to 17% higher in 2015 than the baseline cases. In cases with less generous assumptions, natural gas prices could experience increases of 20% to 49% higher than the baseline estimate in 2015. One thing is certain: any cap-and-trade system will increase the use of natural gas. Natural gas is the best alternative now available to non- CCS coal, so if we reduce coal-powered energy generation, we will probably rely heavily on natural gas as a substitute. By 2030, the increased reliance on natural gas will cause the estimated prices to rise 20% to 107% higher than baseline prices in lowcost scenarios and 87% to 145% in the high cost/limited alternatives cases.
Cap-and-trade will burden households with higher gasoline prices. Table 8 shows the percent difference between the baseline gasoline price and the cap-and-trade adjusted price. All models and scenarios demonstrate that Lieberman-Warner will increase the price of gasoline above the reference scenario price but with large amounts of variation. The CRA predicts that gas prices rise 145% above the reference scenario in 2015. Yet, prices are only 30% higher than the reference scenario in 2030 because the higher CAFE standards are included in the 2030 baseline. The lowest estimates are CATF’s and EPA’s core scenarios, predicting increases of 11.6% and 16.7% by 2030, respectively. Alternative scenarios using higher-cost assumptions show increases from 41.2% to 145% by 2030.
And there is unemployment estimates and on and on and on.
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